Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Aug 19?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 75° to 81°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-04 | — | 74° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 14d · 2026-08-05 | 83° | 77° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 13d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 75° | 77° | — | 81° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 12d · 2026-08-07 | 85° | 79° | 84° | — | 86° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-08 | 78° | 80° | 76° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-09 | 82° | 73° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-10 | 86° | 81° | 85° | — | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-11 | 84° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-12 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-13 | 72° | 71° | 80° | 69° | 92° | 81° | — | 69–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-14 | 70° | 71° | 75° | 72° | 79° | 75° | 75° | 70–79° |
| 4d · 2026-08-15 | 77° | 70° | 80° | 71° | 88° | 78° | 78° | 70–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-16 | 80° | 75° | 78° | 74° | 84° | 78° | 80° | 74–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-17 | 82° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 78° | 77° | 77–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-18 | 81° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 78° | 80° | 77–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-19 | 79° | 79° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 80° | 79° | 79–84° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.