Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Aug 14?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 79° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 81° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 78° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 76° | 83° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 86° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 86° | 83° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 76° | 67° | — | 78° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 77° | 80° | 86° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 73° | 75° | 83° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 73° | 79° | 78° | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 77° | 77° | 84° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 78° | 75° | 88° | 80° | 82° | 72° | — | 72–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 81° | 75° | 87° | 85° | 85° | 83° | 77° | 75–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 80° | 76° | 86° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 77° | 76–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 81° | 82° | 86° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 79° | 79–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 80° | 82° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 86° | 80–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 85° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 81–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-14 | 80° | 84° | 87° | 90° | 87° | 83° | 84° | 80–90° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.