Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Aug 13?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 74° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. ERA5 says the day verified at 80° with 0.06 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 10° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 77° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 77–78° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 76° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 84° | 74° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 81° | 86° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 80° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 70° | 74° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 76° | 79° | 81° | — | 77° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 71° | 91° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 76° | 84° | 78° | 82° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 76° | 88° | 76° | 89° | 77° | — | 76–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 80° | 74° | 87° | 78° | 77° | 86° | 81° | 74–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 82° | 78° | 86° | 81° | 79° | 87° | 81° | 78–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 83° | 80° | 91° | 82° | 85° | 83° | 78° | 78–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 81° | 82° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 83° | 84° | 81–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 81° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 81–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 85° | 84° | 90° | 85° | 80° | 82° | 80–90° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.