Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Aug 12?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 24° to 30°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. ERA5 says the day verified at 32° — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 26° | — | — | 33° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 25° | 22° | — | — | 34° | — | — | 22–34° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 27° | 24° | 30° | — | 28° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 25° | 29° | 29° | — | 21° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 27° | 26° | 31° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–31° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 27° | 26° | 33° | — | 28° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 28° | 26° | 24° | — | 30° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 27° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 26° | — | — | 25–27° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 29° | 25° | 32° | 26° | 32° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 28° | 28° | 32° | 25° | 34° | 27° | — | 25–34° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 27° | 27° | 31° | 26° | 31° | 29° | 29° | 26–31° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 28° | 28° | 32° | 26° | 31° | 31° | 26° | 26–32° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 28° | 29° | 30° | 28° | 33° | 29° | 30° | 28–33° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 29° | 30° | 32° | 32° | 33° | 31° | 30° | 29–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 30° | 31° | 32° | 34° | 33° | 31° | 30° | 30–34° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 31° | 31° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 31° | 30° | 30–34° |
| actual | 32° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.