Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Aug 11?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 73° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 83° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 75° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 73° | 77° | 84° | — | 93° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 79° | 84° | 85° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 79° | 78° | 83° | — | 80° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 77° | 78° | 83° | — | 80° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 81° | 74° | 91° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 78° | 95° | 80° | 86° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 81° | 79° | 76° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 83° | 78° | 88° | 82° | 89° | 80° | — | 78–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 82° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 78° | 78–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 82° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 90° | 83° | 77° | 77–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 83° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 84° | 86° | 83–89° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 86° | 83° | 87° | 88° | 92° | 85° | 84° | 83–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 86° | 85° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 86° | 84° | 84–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-11 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 86° | 86–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.