Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Aug 2?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 6 models put Minneapolis's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 83° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. ERA5 says the day verified at 83° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 87° | 88° | 83° | 95° | 85° | — | 83–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 81° | 78° | 86° | 90° | 93° | 81° | 78–93° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 78° | 83° | 90° | 94° | 83° | 84° | 78–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 81° | 77° | 80° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 82° | 77–86° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 78° | 80° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 80° | 78–87° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 80° | 80° | 92° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 80–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 85° | 82° | 92° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 82–92° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.