Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Jul 30?

Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

3 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 87° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 90° — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

3 days out the models said 87–97; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.8°); AIFS ran 4° cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-27	87°	89°	95°	88°	97°	91°	94°	87–97°
2d · 2026-07-28	88°	88°	94°	88°	90°	88°	94°	88–94°
1d · 2026-07-29	87°	86°	92°	94°	95°	90°	88°	86–95°
0d · 2026-07-30	86°	88°	91°	92°	89°	89°	88°	86–92°
actual								90°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.