Was the forecast right for Milan on Tue Sep 1?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
10 days out, 4 models put Milan's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 82° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 88° against the LIML observations — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 82° | 84° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 88° | 81° | 91° | 86° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 86° | 75° | 92° | 90° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 83° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 89° | 86° | 81° | 92° | 85° | 88° | 81–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 89° | 85° | 90° | 83–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 87° | 89° | 82° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 82–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 87° | 85° | 87° | 83–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 88° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 84–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 85° | 88° | 86° | 82° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 82–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 83–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.