Was the forecast right for Milan on Mon Aug 31?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
9 days out, 5 models put Milan's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 82° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 90° against the LIML observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 86° | 82° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 89° | 86° | 92° | 91° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 91° | 86° | 90° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 86–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 86–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 87–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 87° | 89° | 91° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 87–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 88–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 90–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.