Was the forecast right for Milan on Thu Aug 27?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
5 days out, 7 models put Milan's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 82° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 90° | 82° | 82° | 82–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 87° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 82° | 86° | 82–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 86° | 88° | 85° | 91° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 85–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 87° | 84° | 91° | 87° | 88° | 87° | 84–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 86–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 85–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.