Was the forecast right for Milan on Mon Aug 17?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Milan's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 75° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 88° with 0.13 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 83° | 91° | 82° | 75° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 75–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 84° | 80° | 85° | 74° | 74° | 88° | 86° | 74–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 86° | 85° | 82° | 86° | 91° | 93° | 86° | 82–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 92° | 89° | 94° | 85° | 96° | 92° | 89° | 85–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 89° | 88° | 93° | 93° | 95° | 90° | 95° | 88–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 88° | 90° | 88° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 91° | 88–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-17 | 88° | 87° | 88° | 93° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 86–93° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.