Was the forecast right for Milan on Sun Aug 16?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Milan's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 86° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 93° with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 86° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 99° | 90° | 99° | 86–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 89° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 96° | 95° | 90° | 89–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 90° | 92° | 96° | 95° | 99° | 95° | 93° | 90–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 91° | 93° | 97° | 96° | 100° | 95° | 92° | 91–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 91° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 99° | 97° | 99° | 91–99° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 93° | 95° | 96° | 95° | 100° | 96° | 97° | 93–100° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.