Was the forecast right for Milan on Fri Aug 14?

Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Milan's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 33° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 36° — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-11	33°	35°	35°	34°	37°	33°	35°	33–37°
2d · 2026-08-12	33°	34°	35°	35°	37°	35°	35°	33–37°
1d · 2026-08-13	34°	34°	35°	35°	35°	35°	36°	34–36°
0d · 2026-08-14	34°	34°	35°	35°	36°	35°	36°	34–36°
actual								36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.