Was the forecast right for Miami on Wed Aug 26?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations

4 days out, 7 models put Miami's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the MIA observations, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

4 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-08-22	30°	32°	32°	32°	34°	32°	33°	30–34°
3d · 2026-08-23	29°	32°	30°	33°	34°	32°	32°	29–34°
2d · 2026-08-24	29°	32°	30°	33°	33°	31°	31°	29–33°
1d · 2026-08-25	29°	32°	30°	33°	34°	31°	31°	29–34°
0d · 2026-08-26	30°	32°	31°	33°	34°	31°	32°	30–34°
actual								33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.