Was the forecast right for Miami on Tue Aug 25?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations

3 days out, 7 models put Miami's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the MIA observations — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-22	30°	32°	32°	33°	34°	33°	33°	30–34°
2d · 2026-08-23	31°	33°	32°	33°	34°	33°	34°	31–34°
1d · 2026-08-24	31°	33°	31°	33°	34°	33°	33°	31–34°
0d · 2026-08-25	31°	33°	32°	33°	34°	32°	34°	31–34°
actual								33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.