The Spread

Was the forecast right for Miami on Wed Aug 19?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

13 days out, 4 models put Miami's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 31° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.0 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 31–33; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-04 — 33° — — 32° — — 32–33°
14d · 2026-08-05 31° 32° — — 31° — — 31–32°
13d · 2026-08-06 31° 32° 33° — 31° — — 31–33°
12d · 2026-08-07 32° 32° 34° — 31° — — 31–34°
11d · 2026-08-08 31° 32° 30° — 32° — — 30–32°
10d · 2026-08-09 32° 32° 35° — 32° — — 32–35°
9d · 2026-08-10 32° 33° 35° — 33° — — 32–35°
8d · 2026-08-11 32° 33° 31° 34° 33° — — 31–34°
7d · 2026-08-12 32° 33° 34° 34° 32° — — 32–34°
6d · 2026-08-13 33° 33° 34° 36° 32° 33° — 32–36°
5d · 2026-08-14 33° 35° 34° 33° 33° 35° 35° 33–35°
4d · 2026-08-15 33° 35° 35° 36° 34° 35° 36° 33–36°
3d · 2026-08-16 33° 36° 34° 34° 34° 36° 34° 33–36°
2d · 2026-08-17 33° 37° 35° 34° 34° 36° 35° 33–37°
1d · 2026-08-18 33° 37° 35° 34° 34° 36° 37° 33–37°
0d · 2026-08-19 33° 36° 34° 34° 34° 36° 37° 33–37°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.