The Spread

Was the forecast right for Miami on Tue Aug 11?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

13 days out, 4 models put Miami's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 32° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. ERA5 says the day verified at 33° with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 1° cold.

13 days out the models said 32–33; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-27 — 31° — — 32° — — 31–32°
14d · 2026-07-28 31° 33° — — 31° — — 31–33°
13d · 2026-07-29 32° 33° 32° — 32° — — 32–33°
12d · 2026-07-30 31° 32° 33° — 32° — — 31–33°
11d · 2026-07-31 31° 33° 30° — 32° — — 30–33°
10d · 2026-08-01 32° 33° 33° — 31° — — 31–33°
9d · 2026-08-02 31° 33° 30° — 32° — — 30–33°
8d · 2026-08-03 32° 33° 31° 33° 32° — — 31–33°
7d · 2026-08-04 31° 34° 31° 33° 31° — — 31–34°
6d · 2026-08-05 32° 34° 32° 33° 31° 32° — 31–34°
5d · 2026-08-06 32° 34° 32° 33° 31° 32° 33° 31–34°
4d · 2026-08-07 32° 34° 32° 33° 31° 32° 34° 31–34°
3d · 2026-08-08 32° 34° 31° 33° 32° 32° 33° 31–34°
2d · 2026-08-09 32° 34° 32° 32° 32° 33° 33° 32–34°
1d · 2026-08-10 32° 33° 31° 32° 32° 33° 33° 31–33°
0d · 2026-08-11 32° 34° 32° 33° 32° 33° 34° 32–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.