Was the forecast right for Miami on Thu Aug 6?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Miami's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 87° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. ERA5 says the day verified at 86° with 0.32 in of precipitation — rain.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 87° | 87° | 90° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 89° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 90° | 83° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 89° | 87° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 88° | 84° | 90° | 89° | 83° | — | 83–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 88° | 84° | 91° | 89° | 88° | 84° | 84–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 84° | 90° | 84–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 88° | 85° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 91° | 84–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 83° | 88° | 82° | 89° | 88° | 85° | 87° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 88° | 86° | 89° | 85° | 85° | 89° | 84–89° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 88° | 83° | 90° | 86° | 84° | 90° | 83–90° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.