Was the forecast right for Miami on Tue Aug 4?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Miami's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 86° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.08 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 88° | 90° | 87° | 90° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 89° | 86° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 90° | — | 85–90° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 85° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 92° | 85–92° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 90° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 84–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 84–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 89° | 86° | 91° | 86° | 89° | 91° | 85–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 92° | 86–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.