Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Aug 29?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
6 days out, 6 models put Los Angeles's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 85° to 103°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 96° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 85° | 97° | 95° | 94° | 103° | — | 85–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 91° | 82° | 99° | 94° | 92° | 98° | 92° | 82–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 91° | 86° | 101° | 92° | 95° | 100° | 92° | 86–101° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 83° | 95° | 93° | 95° | 97° | 91° | 83–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 85° | 95° | 96° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 85–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 86° | 94° | 98° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 86–98° |
| 0d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 87° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 97° | 94° | 87–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.