Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Aug 28?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
5 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 84° to 108°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 97° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-23 | 93° | 84° | 108° | 96° | 95° | 105° | 98° | 84–108° |
| 4d · 2026-08-24 | 94° | 83° | 106° | 94° | 93° | 103° | 97° | 83–106° |
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 92° | 86° | 105° | 93° | 96° | 102° | 96° | 86–105° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 84° | 101° | 96° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 84–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 86° | 100° | 96° | 93° | 97° | 95° | 86–100° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 91° | 88° | 99° | 100° | 95° | 102° | 97° | 88–102° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.