Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Aug 26?

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations

3 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 29° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.

3 days out the models said 29–41; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-23	35°	29°	41°	36°	36°	39°	37°	29–41°
2d · 2026-08-24	36°	30°	39°	38°	38°	39°	35°	30–39°
1d · 2026-08-25	35°	31°	38°	38°	36°	39°	35°	31–39°
0d · 2026-08-26	33°	31°	38°	38°	36°	38°	36°	31–38°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.