Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 17?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 79° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 92° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 3.3°. AIGFS ran 11° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 78° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 80° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 76–95° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 79° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 77° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 78° | 81° | — | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 81° | 81° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 87° | 78° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 83° | 77° | 82° | 82° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 79° | 84° | 87° | 85° | 86° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 87° | 82° | 83° | 88° | 86° | 82° | — | 82–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 79° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 92° | 79–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 89° | 81° | 86° | 89° | 90° | 82° | 86° | 81–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 87° | 82° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 82° | 84° | 82–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 87° | 82° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 83° | 84° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 86° | 81° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 83° | 86° | 81–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-17 | 85° | 81° | 89° | 87° | 88° | 86° | 87° | 81–89° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.