Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 10?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 72° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 94° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 2.7°. AIGFS ran 12° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 79° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 72° | 79° | — | 87° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 82° | 76° | 84° | — | 81° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 76° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 81° | 74° | 82° | — | 89° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 80° | 74° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 77° | 88° | 91° | 90° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 77° | 86° | 93° | 92° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 81° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 88° | — | 81–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 83° | 82° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 86° | 91° | 82–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 82° | 93° | 92° | 94° | 85° | 92° | 82–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 84° | 82° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 85° | 92° | 82–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 81° | 91° | 91° | 94° | 85° | 90° | 81–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 80° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 84° | 90° | 80–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 85° | 81° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 85° | 89° | 81–91° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.