Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Aug 7?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
11 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 82° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 94° — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 17° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 82° | 82° | 92° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 76° | 93° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–93° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 78° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 85° | 76° | 88° | 89° | 93° | — | — | 76–93° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 78° | 86° | 89° | 95° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 77° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 86° | — | 77–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 76° | 95° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 76–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 79° | 92° | 90° | 93° | 89° | 91° | 79–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 86° | 78° | 93° | 91° | 93° | 87° | 89° | 78–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 79° | 93° | 91° | 91° | 84° | 88° | 79–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 84° | 79° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 85° | 87° | 79–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-07 | 85° | 78° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 84° | 88° | 78–92° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.