Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Aug 6?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 82° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 12° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 82° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 79° | 93° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 79° | 86° | 93° | 89° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 77° | 87° | 90° | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 78° | 87° | 90° | 95° | 85° | — | 78–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 77° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 86° | 85° | 77–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 77° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 88° | 86° | 77–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 78° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 88° | 87° | 78–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 78° | 91° | 89° | 92° | 87° | 85° | 78–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 78° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 78–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 84° | 79° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 83° | 88° | 79–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.