The Spread

Was the forecast right for London on Sat Aug 29?

London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations

7 days out, 5 models put London's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 66° to 71°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the EGLL observations, with 0.14 in of precipitation — showers.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.

7 days out the models said 66–71; it hit 70. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-22 70° 70° 69° 66° 71° 66–71°
6d · 2026-08-23 70° 69° 70° 70° 76° 72° 70° 69–76°
5d · 2026-08-24 71° 71° 66° 71° 64° 73° 73° 64–73°
4d · 2026-08-25 68° 71° 69° 75° 80° 69° 70° 68–80°
3d · 2026-08-26 68° 69° 68° 67° 72° 69° 71° 67–72°
2d · 2026-08-27 66° 67° 68° 70° 72° 70° 72° 66–72°
1d · 2026-08-28 65° 64° 66° 66° 67° 68° 70° 64–70°
0d · 2026-08-29 66° 66° 68° 70° 67° 70° 70° 66–70°
actual 70°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.