The Spread

Was the forecast right for London on Tue Aug 25?

London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations

3 days out, 7 models put London's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 72° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 77° against the EGLL observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°.

3 days out the models said 72–80; it hit 77. ICON led (off 0.0°F).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-22 72° 74° 77° 78° 77° 76° 80° 72–80°
2d · 2026-08-23 73° 73° 74° 74° 77° 74° 75° 73–77°
1d · 2026-08-24 77° 74° 77° 78° 76° 77° 78° 74–78°
0d · 2026-08-25 77° 77° 78° 77° 77° 77° 78° 77–78°
actual 77°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.