Was the forecast right for London on Sun Aug 16?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put London's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 75° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 76° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 75° | 75° | 77° | 77° | 80° | 78° | 77° | 75–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 76° | 72° | 78° | 77° | 73° | 79° | 75° | 72–79° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 76° | 73° | 79° | 77° | 81° | 79° | 76° | 73–81° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 79° | 75° | 81° | 77° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 75–81° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 78° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 83° | 78° | 78° | 76–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 76° | 74° | 72° | 78° | 75° | 79° | 80° | 72–80° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.