Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Sep 1?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
10 days out, 4 models put Houston's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 94° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 87° against the HOU observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 96° | 97° | — | 99° | — | — | 94–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 98° | 93° | — | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 95° | 94° | 90° | 93° | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 97° | 97° | 90° | 95° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 96° | 98° | 93° | 93° | 96° | 91° | — | 91–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 95° | 98° | 92° | 93° | 99° | 96° | 92° | 92–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 98° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 99° | 92° | 92–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 91° | 91° | 94° | 97° | 93° | 88° | 88–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 84° | 82° | 89° | 86° | 82–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 82° | 85° | 94° | 88° | 86° | 87° | 82–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 84–93° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.