Was the forecast right for Houston on Fri Aug 28?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
6 days out, 6 models put Houston's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 96° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 96° against the HOU observations, with 0.83 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-22 | 96° | 101° | 99° | 97° | 98° | 100° | — | 96–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 100° | 91° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 96° | 91–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 99° | 90° | 95° | 100° | 89° | 97° | 89–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 97° | 98° | 95° | 94° | 104° | 92° | 100° | 92–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 94° | 96° | 92° | 96° | 96° | 91° | 91° | 91–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 94° | 94° | 90° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 100° | 90–100° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 92° | 95° | 91° | 94° | 99° | 94° | 91° | 91–99° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.