Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Aug 25?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

3 days out, 7 models put Houston's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 37° against the HOU observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 3° hot.

3 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 37. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-22	36°	38°	38°	38°	39°	37°	38°	36–39°
2d · 2026-08-23	36°	37°	37°	38°	38°	37°	36°	36–38°
1d · 2026-08-24	36°	37°	37°	38°	40°	37°	36°	36–40°
0d · 2026-08-25	36°	38°	36°	37°	39°	38°	38°	36–39°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.