Was the forecast right for Houston on Thu Jul 30?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Houston's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 93° to 103°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. ERA5 says the day verified at 97° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 95° | 93° | 100° | 97° | 103° | 98° | 98° | 93–103° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 98° | 99° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 98° | 94–102° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 94° | 96° | 96° | 98° | 98° | 96° | 99° | 94–99° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 95° | 97° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 95–99° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.