The Spread

Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Aug 28?

Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations

3 days out, 7 models put Detroit's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 24° to 28°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 27° against the DTW observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-25 26° 24° 28° 24° 27° 27° 25° 24–28°
2d · 2026-08-26 26° 25° 26° 24° 28° 25° 25° 24–28°
1d · 2026-08-27 27° 24° 27° 28° 27° 26° 25° 24–28°
0d · 2026-08-28 26° 25° 26° 28° 27° 26° 26° 25–28°
actual 27°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.