The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 1?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

7 days out, 5 models put Denver's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 82° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 87° against the DEN observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.

7 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 87. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-25 86° 86° 86° 82° 91° 82–91°
6d · 2026-08-26 84° 82° 86° 87° 84° 83° 82–87°
5d · 2026-08-27 82° 83° 88° 85° 85° 85° 88° 82–88°
4d · 2026-08-28 75° 82° 84° 82° 86° 87° 79° 75–87°
3d · 2026-08-29 81° 80° 81° 78° 87° 85° 88° 78–88°
2d · 2026-08-30 83° 80° 82° 83° 82° 84° 87° 80–87°
1d · 2026-08-31 83° 81° 84° 84° 83° 83° 81° 81–84°
0d · 2026-09-01 83° 81° 84° 85° 84° 82° 86° 81–86°
actual 87°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.