Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Aug 31?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
6 days out, 6 models put Denver's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 79° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 86° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ICON ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 79° | — | 79–84° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 76° | 78° | 87° | 87° | 83° | 79° | 82° | 76–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 77° | 79° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 86° | 77–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 79–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 82° | 79° | 85° | 86° | 80° | 76° | 76–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 81° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 80° | 83° | 80–86° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 82° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 79° | 84° | 79–85° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.