Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Aug 30?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
5 days out, 7 models put Denver's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 80° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 85° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 80° | 89° | 91° | 86° | 83° | 92° | 80–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 86° | 88° | 91° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 84–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 84° | 88° | 92° | 84° | 86° | 91° | 84–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 85° | 89° | 90° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 85–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 88° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 84–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 83° | 87° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 83–88° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.