Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Aug 19?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 78° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-04 | — | 69° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 69–102° |
| 14d · 2026-08-05 | 80° | 83° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 85° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-07 | 83° | 91° | 80° | — | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-08 | 79° | 93° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-09 | 82° | 78° | 86° | — | 96° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-10 | 83° | 90° | 92° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-11 | 81° | 88° | 91° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-12 | 85° | 89° | 87° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 6d · 2026-08-13 | 80° | 81° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 88° | — | 80–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-14 | 83° | 74° | 83° | 81° | 77° | 76° | 87° | 74–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-15 | 81° | 74° | 80° | 84° | 84° | 88° | 89° | 74–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-16 | 86° | 80° | 84° | 88° | 94° | 88° | 87° | 80–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-17 | 88° | 87° | 88° | 86° | 94° | 89° | 89° | 86–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-18 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 96° | 89° | 91° | 87–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-19 | 87° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 91° | 89° | 91° | 87–91° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.