Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Aug 16?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 72° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 84° with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 83° | — | — | 100° | — | — | 83–100° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 81° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 72° | 91° | 81° | — | 92° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 81° | 83° | 75° | — | 96° | — | — | 75–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 80° | 79° | 80° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 75° | 82° | 81° | — | 91° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 72° | 82° | 80° | — | 93° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 82° | 83° | 74° | 83° | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 80° | 83° | 76° | 88° | 87° | 89° | — | 76–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 81° | 91° | 88° | 81° | 81–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 78° | 82° | 76° | 83° | 91° | 81° | 82° | 76–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 82° | 83° | 76° | 82° | 90° | 87° | 81° | 76–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 82° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 79–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 82° | 82° | 79° | 80° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 79–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 80° | 82° | 80° | 76° | 87° | 83° | 85° | 76–87° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.