Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Aug 13?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 80° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 80° with 0.21 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 85° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 89° | 84° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 94° | 80° | 80° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 73° | 92° | — | 90° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 78° | 79° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 76° | 70° | — | 100° | — | — | 70–100° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 77° | 84° | 97° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 79° | 86° | 83° | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 66° | 86° | 84° | 77° | 88° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 62° | 81° | 90° | 75° | 97° | 91° | — | 62–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 75° | 72° | 86° | 84° | 74° | 90° | 81° | 72–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 77° | 75° | 82° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 75–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 73° | 79° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 82° | 85° | 73–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 77° | 80° | 83° | 84° | 91° | 86° | 80° | 77–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 77° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 77–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-13 | 73° | 75° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 76° | 73–82° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.