Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Aug 12?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 85° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 94° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 89° | — | — | 100° | — | — | 89–100° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 91° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 85° | 94° | 92° | — | 101° | — | — | 85–101° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 85° | 91° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 86° | 82° | 95° | — | 99° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 81° | 88° | — | 95° | — | — | 81–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 80° | 78° | — | 96° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 88° | 90° | 93° | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 86° | 90° | 92° | 84° | 99° | 92° | — | 84–99° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 86° | 88° | 95° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 94° | 86–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 88° | 87° | 98° | 85° | 96° | 94° | 85° | 85–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 89° | 94° | 90° | 98° | 95° | 91° | 88–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 89° | 94° | 93° | 98° | 96° | 87° | 87–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 88° | 89° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 94° | 92° | 88–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 89° | 91° | 96° | 92° | 95° | 96° | 91° | 89–96° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.