Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Aug 10?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 84° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. ERA5 says the day verified at 93° with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 87° | 90° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 90° | 92° | — | 97° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 92° | 89° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 89–100° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 97° | 87° | 94° | — | 98° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 81° | 100° | — | 102° | — | — | 81–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 84° | 85° | — | 100° | — | — | 82–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 97° | 91° | 100° | 94° | 103° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 93° | 104° | 95° | 102° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 89° | 79° | 99° | 96° | 95° | 99° | — | 79–99° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 95° | 88° | 99° | 93° | 87° | 92° | 100° | 87–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 92° | 88° | 99° | 96° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 88–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 101° | 96° | 97° | 92–101° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 91° | 93° | 92° | 94° | 99° | 97° | 93° | 91–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 92° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 92–98° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 93° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 96° | 96° | 91° | 91–96° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.