The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Aug 8?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 34° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. ERA5 says the day verified at 38° — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-07-25 35° 35° 34° — 39° — — 34–39°
12d · 2026-07-27 33° 35° 40° — 39° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-07-28 32° 35° 39° — 39° — — 32–39°
10d · 2026-07-29 35° 26° 32° — 37° — — 26–37°
9d · 2026-07-30 33° 28° 37° — 33° — — 28–37°
8d · 2026-07-31 33° 34° 35° 33° 37° — — 33–37°
7d · 2026-08-01 34° 34° 40° 33° 36° — — 33–40°
6d · 2026-08-02 36° 34° 40° 34° 40° 39° — 34–40°
5d · 2026-08-03 38° 37° 39° 35° 40° 38° 38° 35–40°
4d · 2026-08-04 37° 37° 37° 35° 39° 38° 38° 35–39°
3d · 2026-08-05 37° 37° 38° 34° 39° 37° 37° 34–39°
2d · 2026-08-06 37° 37° 37° 34° 39° 37° 37° 34–39°
1d · 2026-08-07 37° 37° 37° 35° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
0d · 2026-08-08 37° 37° 38° 34° 38° 36° 37° 34–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.