Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Aug 6?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
12 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 90° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. ERA5 says the day verified at 98° — clear.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-25 | 90° | 97° | 98° | — | 101° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 98° | 93° | 93° | — | 102° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 90° | 101° | — | 96° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 88° | 96° | 90° | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 83° | 103° | 85° | 101° | — | — | 83–103° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 81° | 89° | 96° | 92° | 86° | 96° | — | 81–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 89° | 98° | 91° | 94° | 100° | 97° | 89–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 89° | 91° | 95° | 90° | 98° | 96° | 89° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 94° | 94° | 96° | 90° | 99° | 97° | 93° | 90–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 95° | 97° | 98° | 90° | 99° | 96° | 99° | 90–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 95° | 96° | 97° | 88° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 88–98° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 95° | 96° | 97° | 89° | 97° | 95° | 98° | 89–98° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.