Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Aug 4?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 75° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 76° with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 75° | 83° | 84° | — | 102° | — | — | 75–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 85° | 94° | 72° | 94° | — | — | 72–94° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 72° | 71° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 91° | — | 71–91° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 74° | 73° | 89° | 82° | 86° | 74° | 90° | 73–90° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 72° | 72° | 90° | 75° | 85° | 77° | 86° | 72–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 75° | 77° | 80° | 80° | 90° | 77° | 78° | 75–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 75° | 76° | 83° | 73° | 85° | 80° | 83° | 73–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 75° | 76° | 82° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 75–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 74° | 77° | 81° | 78° | 82° | 77° | 82° | 74–82° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.