Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Aug 1?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Denver's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 92° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 95° — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 92° | 92° | 94° | 93° | 102° | — | — | 92–102° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 93° | 91° | 92° | 100° | 92° | 98° | 90–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 91° | 91° | 100° | 90° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 90–100° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 90° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 95° | 92° | 94° | 90–95° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 94° | 92° | 93° | 88–94° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 92° | 91° | 93° | 89° | 96° | 94° | 94° | 89–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 96° | 89–96° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.