Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Jul 29?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Denver's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 86° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° with 0.17 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-25 | 86° | 87° | 90° | 92° | 97° | 94° | 92° | 86–97° |
| 2d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 86° | 81° | 82° | 96° | 91° | 87° | 81–96° |
| 1d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 86–94° |
| 0d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 86° | 90° | 88° | 95° | 94° | 91° | 86–95° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.