The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 31?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

10 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 37° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 2° hot.

10 days out the models said 37–40; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-21 38° 37° 40° — 40° — — 37–40°
9d · 2026-08-22 37° 37° 40° — 38° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-23 38° 38° 39° 38° 40° — — 38–40°
7d · 2026-08-24 38° 36° 39° 37° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-08-25 38° 37° 39° 36° 39° 38° — 36–39°
5d · 2026-08-26 38° 37° 38° 35° 38° 39° 37° 35–39°
4d · 2026-08-27 38° 37° 39° 37° 39° 37° 38° 37–39°
3d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 39° 37° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
2d · 2026-08-29 38° 38° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 38–40°
1d · 2026-08-30 38° 38° 39° 37° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-08-31 38° 38° 39° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.