Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Aug 28?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

7 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 35° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 1° cold.

7 days out the models said 35–41; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 1°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
7d · 2026-08-21	37°	40°	41°	35°	40°	—	—	35–41°
6d · 2026-08-22	38°	36°	39°	36°	34°	38°	—	34–39°
5d · 2026-08-23	38°	38°	39°	37°	39°	37°	38°	37–39°
4d · 2026-08-24	37°	38°	39°	31°	42°	36°	34°	31–42°
3d · 2026-08-25	37°	36°	38°	36°	41°	37°	38°	36–41°
2d · 2026-08-26	38°	38°	38°	33°	40°	36°	37°	33–40°
1d · 2026-08-27	38°	38°	38°	37°	41°	37°	39°	37–41°
0d · 2026-08-28	39°	38°	39°	37°	40°	38°	38°	37–40°
actual								39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.