Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Aug 12?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 92° to 107°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 102°. ERA5 says the day verified at 102° — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 102° | — | — | 110° | — | — | 102–110° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 105° | 101° | — | — | 107° | — | — | 101–107° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 95° | 92° | 106° | — | 107° | — | — | 92–107° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 102° | 101° | 104° | — | 107° | — | — | 101–107° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 103° | 101° | 104° | — | 106° | — | — | 101–106° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 98° | 102° | 105° | — | 103° | — | — | 98–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 103° | 101° | 102° | — | 106° | — | — | 101–106° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 103° | 103° | 102° | 101° | 106° | — | — | 101–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 103° | 103° | 102° | 100° | 106° | — | — | 100–106° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 102° | 102° | 103° | 100° | 106° | 104° | — | 100–106° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 102° | 102° | 104° | 100° | 106° | 105° | 102° | 100–106° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 102° | 102° | 105° | 100° | 106° | 104° | 102° | 100–106° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 102° | 100° | 104° | 99° | 105° | 103° | 102° | 99–105° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 102° | 101° | 103° | 99° | 105° | 104° | 100° | 99–105° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 101° | 102° | 103° | 99° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 99–103° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 101° | 102° | 104° | 100° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 100–104° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.